RENT Check is the ARMLS^® monthly publication which examines the Valley’s current residential single family leasing market.
RENT Check also features the RENT Check Quotient™ (RCQ) which compares leasing activity to sales.

This month RENT Check features a new addition, a heat map of active single family lease property all across the Valley. Click on
the link below for the full report:

rent-check-january-2012

97% LTV Conv     90% LTV 2nd Home     95% LTV Conv <90 day Flip      FHA203K

 97% LTV HomePath     Zero Down USDA Financing     10% Down Investment

Articles

Real Estate Drops But Second Home Market May See Increase
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20120203_2ndhomes.htm

Obama Mortgage Refinance Plan Accelerates Equity Rebuild
http://www.housingwire.com/article/obama-mortgage-refinance-plan-accelerates-equity-rebuild

Foreclosures Hit 4-year Low in Metro Area
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2012/02/02/20120202foreclosures-hit-year-low-metro-area.html

Unemployment Rate Dips to 8.3% – Hiring Bursts Top Expectations
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2012/02/03/20120203unemployment-rate-dips.html

  Market Update

Mortgage bond prices were only slightly higher this week, which kept mortgage interest rates in check.  There were rate improvements throughout the middle of the week tied to weaker than expected ADP employment figures.  Unfortunately, a lot of those gains were erased Friday morning with the release of the employment report.  Unemployment came in @ 8.3% which was better than the expected 8.5% mark.  Payrolls increased 243k, which was considerably stronger than the expected 155k increase.  Stocks rallied and MBS prices fell as a result.

Auctions

US Treasury bonds do not directly dictate fixed mortgage interest rate pricing however they do have an indirect impact.   Treasuries are used as a hedge for the interest rate risk associated with mortgage-backed security investing.  Mortgage-backed securities have the potential for prepayment that Treasuries do not.  Both Treasuries and mortgage bonds often track in the same direction but this is not always the case.  There are many times that Treasuries and mortgage bonds move inversely. Despite the overwhelming size of the US economy, foreign investors can still have an effect on moving the financial markets.  When foreign economies struggle foreign investors often purchase US based investments including mortgage bonds.  This demand usually causes mortgage bond prices to rise and interest rates to fall.  This flight to quality buying is one of the factors helping mortgage interest rates remain historically low. The Fed recently noted that continued global economic turmoil will be a factor in the health of the US economy.  How that all plays out is still uncertain.

The Treasury auctions this coming week will be important in determining the current appetite of foreign investors for dollar denominated debt securities.  Demand has been generally good as of late but auctions of different durations often vary in their results.  Mortgage bond prices could fall pressuring mortgage interest rates higher if the auctions this next week are poorly bid.  The inverse is also true.

Have a safe weekend

 Call Us For Immediate Pre-Qualifications on our 7 day a week team line 480-626-2202 or @ tobiasteam@novahomeloans.com 

Interested in purchasing a new home in Phoenix metropolitan area? Click on the link below for the lastest inventory in your area:

Phoenix Mesa Inventory Feb 2

Jon Tobias – Senior Loan Officer Mobile: 480-225-2987
Ben Tobias – Loan Officer Mobile: 480-577-8811
Doak Cheatham – Loan Officer Mobile: 480-678-8640
97% LTV Conv 90% LTV 2nd Home 95% LTV Conv <90 day Flip FHA203K

97% LTV HomePath Zero Down USDA Financing 10% Down Investment

Articles

Help is coming in March for underwater homeowners
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2012/01/06/20120106phoenix-area-underwater-homeowners-help-coming-march.html

Home Depot to hire 1,000 around Phoenix
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2012/01/12/20120112home-depot-hire-k-workers-spring.html

US foreclosure rate lowest since pre-recession
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2012/01/12/20120112us-foreclosure-rate-lowest-since-pre-recession.html

Mortgage Rates Continue Trend of Record-Breaking Lows
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20120113_ratesfreddie.htm

Market Update

Mortgage bond prices were higher this week which helped mortgage interest rates improve. The Euro debt crisis dominated trading as market direction swung rapidly on news articles throughout the week. Last Tuesday, Fitch Ratings reported that French triple A credit was safe. Spain and Italy had decent debt auctions. These events kept MBS prices in check early in the week. Fortunately, higher than expected jobless claims Thursday and S&P Ratings downgrade rumors for France on Friday pushed MBS prices in the right direction.

European Turmoil

The newswires were full of European downgrade rumors this Friday as French news reports indicated France and four other countries would soon see their credit ratings downgraded. Spain, Portugal, and Italy were rumored to face a two notch credit rating cut while France would lose triple A rating. This would likely put additional pressure on Germany despite the fact it is expected to maintain triple A status. The European Financial Stability Facility is a special entity created to help fight the European debt crisis. The EFSF relies heavily on France and Germany to fund the loans it provides to troubled eurozone countries.

This news came amid earlier reports that Banks holding Greek debt failed to come to an agreement on a write-down and reignited fears of a Greek default. Charles Dallara, the head of the Institute of International Finance which is representing the banks in EU negotiations, indicated “there is no agreement on any element of a deal.” Things don’t look good for Greece. The terrible news out of Europe has some positive news for the US as mortgage interest rates benefit from flight to quality buying in the short term. Now is a great time to take advantage of the historically low rates.
Have a safe weekend

January 13th, 2012

Call Us For Immediate Pre-Qualifications or 2nd Opinions on our 7 day a week team line 480-626-2202 or @ tobiasteam@novahomeloans.com

Interested in purchasing a new home in Phoenix metropolitan area? Click on the link below for the lastest inventory in your area:

Builder Inventory for January 11, 2012

SALES Month over Month

Sales in December rose 9.7% over November to 7,840. The December sales figure
reverses a downward trend line which started from a June high of 11,125 to a low of
7,146 in November (with the exception of August which rose 3.9% ). Thus 2011 went out
in a flourish, typical of the last month of the year, as buyers hastened to close before
year’s end.
SALES Year over Year
December’s figure fell 6.7% below 2010’s decade record breaking December sales figure
(8,401). The 2011 December sales figure (7,840) is the third highest of the decade,
surpassed only by 2010 (8,401) and 2004 (7,902). Only two years since 2001 showed
declines from November to December (2004, 2005).
Download the full property report, Dec 2011 ARMLS Report.

SALES Month over Month

November sales of 7,146 followed the downward trajectory begun from the high of
11,125 in June. November sales represent a 1.7% drop below October.

 
SALES Year over Year

November sales were 5.3% higher than the same figure in 2010. Sales from October to
November dropped in nine of the previous ten years with 2011 as no exception to the
typical fourth quarter pattern.

You can view the full report by clicking Nov 2011 ARMLS Report

SALES Month over Month Sales dropped for the second month in a row by 4.2% in October to 7,563. This figure is 11.56% below the previous 11 month average of 8,552 sales per month. Sales have been trending downward since June.

SALES Year over Year October sales (7,563) were 14.7% above the October 2010 figure of 6,593. Sales fell from September to October in seven out of the previous ten years. Thus the October drop is viewed as seasonally typical. Download the full report by clicking Oct 2011 ARMLS Report

SALES Month over Month
Sales in September took a 9.4% dip to land at 7,892.  This figure is almost 10% off the
2011 average of 8,765.  With the exception of 2008, a decline in sales from August to
September has occurred in nine out of the last ten years, with an average decline of
9.18%.

SALES Year over Year
The September sales figure (7,892) was 16.7% higher than the September 2010 figure
(6,764). The 2010-2011 sales figures follow a similar wave pattern of 2009-2010, although
with higher values. All in all sales are up and in line with predictable seasonal fluctuations.